Tuesday, December 30, 2008

If you are a GM car salesperson, please be carefull.

People will wait outside of GM dealerships and wait to buy a new car with 0% 5 year loan.

Have you heard Walmart employee got killed by the shoppers? I really worry about your safty.

Tuesday, December 23, 2008

My top 10 Gifts for some People. Can you guess who?

Can't do it without Viagra.
Blue one or Red one?

Some Jewlery

A Gun for their protection.

Cars and hot chick.

Jump rope for fun.

Some Cash to buy stuff.

Some stock options that will make them richer.

They can use this to clean up their office.

PJ for cold winter days.

A free House for the rest of their life.

Friday, December 12, 2008

Socialism vs Capitalism

Socialism give the Power to the Few.
Capitalism give the Money to the Few.

Human progressed from giving money and power to the same people to separate money and power to a certain degree.

What is for us next?

Tuesday, December 9, 2008

Lawrence Yun on housing market.

Watch what Lawrence Yun said yesterday.

This is what Lawrence Yun sad today. I think someone is lying. If housing market bottomed, why they want to suck on taxpayers' tits?

Lawrence Yun Of The NAR On Housing:

It Is Important For The Government To Step In
12/9/2008 12:47 PM ET

(RTTNews) - In an interview with RTT News, Lawrence Yun, senior economist at the National Association of Realtors explains why Tuesday's "stable" pending home sales data is "not good news." He says "inventories will not come down with stable home sales…only with a solid upturn." Yun stresses the importance of the government stepping in to aid the housing market. He says "it is critical to get the housing market back into shape and stimulus is required." "The way to turn the economy around is to turn the housing market around and to do that is to provide incentives to the buyers," says Yun. "Without stimulus, we may be in for a long downturn in the economy," he warns. To listen to the complete interview, visit:http://www.rttnews.com/Content/AVDownload.ashx?ID=26674&url=Audio2/2008/December/9/INTV-YUN-PendHomes-12.09.08-lbr.mp3 by RTT Staff WriterFor comments and feedback: contact editorial@rttnews.com

Wall Street Lies

I am going to add more on this one.

1. Buy it now, it is cheap.
It is not cheap! Because there is no E(earning) in P/E ratio. And it is getting mighty expensive if you calculate with the real Earning. Someone said on cnbs that the stocks are awefully cheap now. LoL. How about down 50% from what we had in 2002? Since everything since 2002 were lies and bubble.

2. If you can wait 5 or more years, this is a great time to buy.
It take decades for us to build this giant bubble. It ran out mortage from 6,7 trillions to 13,14 trillions in 6 years. And trillions leveraged up 20, 30 times to hundreds of trillions.
So how long will it take for us to create another bubble like this? If we learned our lesson and we won't use the leverage. How long do you think it will take for us to get back to where we was in 2006? That is also depend on we are not going to get worse from here. Which to me is impossible.

Monday, December 8, 2008

Obama's stimulus package

700 Billion to build Infrastructure?

What will that do? Nothing. To me, it is simply like a bankrupted homeowner borrow some more money to put a new marble counter top in his kitchen before he goes bk.

All these money at best will be used to replacing or repairing the old bridges and roads. We don't need more bridges to nowhere, let alone the bridges to oblivion. So, the stimulus will not provide any additional value to the economy. We will lose tons of 100k+ jobs and create a lot of 70k jobs. It will do nothing to saving this economy.

We need investment in High tech, education(kind of late and won't be fast enough to see effect for a long time). We need to fix the health insurance and medicare system. We need to fix the government. We should have courage to cut defense and govt to 1/3 of it size. Then use that money to cut tax, and lower the medicare cost. We need protectionism come back for at least 10 years. So that everyone can have a job produce something we all need. Without all these measures, we are going to have a long and painful road in front of us.

And again, where will the money come from??? Printing? It could be an answer, but it definitely is not a solution. Yes deficit spending does not matter for now. But still, where will the money come from? Chinese? Forget it, they need money themselves. Arabs? No Way, Crude oil is at 40 bucks now. Japan? I doubt it. Europe are all going broke. And don't count on Mexico, cause we don't need pesos.

10 Million For Merill Lynch CEO?

How about 10 year jail term as bonus?

I bet 90% of Americans will say Yes.

Friday, December 5, 2008

What is Big 3 Bail out is all about?

All these big 3 bail out shows are more political than economical.
It is not about Big 3. It is about who will be the one to get balmed for the action or no action.
Bail or not bail really does not matter. Not bail them, they will bk now. Bail them, they will be bk few month later. But the one makes the decision will get blamed no matter what he chose to do.
All bush, hank want is to push this to the next president. That is why some people are suggestions to just give big 3 some money now. Dems will not do it. Because that will just hand this problem to Obama. Dems want bush and Hank to make the decision now. Right now the question is: can GM wait that long? Who knows. Nobody trust those guys anymore.
Dems want Hank to use the tarp money so that bush admin viewed as the one bailed Big 3. Some want to give big 3 a few billions now. Then the problem will belongs to Obama.

Monday, November 24, 2008

Shopping malls are running on empty

I have been telling my friends that many many Mom and Pa shops will close right after Christmas.

Why, cause they don't have enough cash or enough business to last one day longer after the Xmas. They can't even get a loan to keep on going.

What worse is that many bankrupted retailers will liquidate their inventories. Where will the shoppers go? They will shop whereever gives more discount. Why shop at 15% discount shop while circuit city is having 50% off. or Mervyns or Linens 'n Things.

I bought some suff in Linens 'n Things at deep discount. I will get much worst in spring. You can count on it.


Ko's company manages dozens of properties in Los Angeles and Orange counties. In recent months, they've experienced a rise in delinquent renters. One plaza in Rowland Heights has been hampered by a closure, an upcoming eviction and a business for sale."It was at 100% occupancy just half a year ago," Ko said.A bad situation threatens to get worse after the holidays.Christmas is always a key driver of merchants' financial success, but this year it could mean life and death for many stores, analysts say.Struggling businesses typically hang on through the holiday and then evaluate their financial position, said Malachy Kavanagh, a spokesman for the International Council of Shopping Centers, an industry trade group.

Friday, November 21, 2008

CNBC: We are in the bottoming process

Of course we are. I am sure we will find a bottom somehow, someway.
If you want to put your money in this process, that is fine. But better put it in the right side of the trade.

We will bottom until we saw the worst of this economy. We will find the bottome until the highest unemployment number reached.

But there is always another way to bottom before everything gets even worse. That is something called hyper inflation.

Denis Gartman on CNBC said it is so much easier to deal with inflation, plus everybody felt much richer. Yes Denis, I am sure you will be gazillionair if we gets it.

Thursday, November 13, 2008

We need to pay big buck to keep the talents who work in Wall St.

Oh Really?

I wonder how much talent do you need to bankrupt the investment banks.

I wonder how much talent do you need to lose billions and billions of dollars. It got to be hard to lose that much.

When you lose 100 bucks, you are nobody.
When you lose 100 Billions, you are somebody.

Wednesday, November 12, 2008

Bait & Switch

Rick Santali raised that sign on TV.

So I will be surprised if people will be surprised that Hank will not go and get the rest 450 billions of that 700 billions bailout money from congress. I think you can kiss good bye to that money now.

When will the market realize that? Well we will know when sp500 tank 50 points in one day.

Sunday, November 9, 2008

BS from bloomberg

Here is the bloomberg news I found from TF.

Nov. 9 (Bloomberg) -- China announced a 4 trillion yuan ($586 billion) stimulus plan to spur expansion in the world's fourth-largest economy, helping sustain global growth as the U.S., Europe and Japan teeter on the brink of recession.

Totally bullshit. Even it is ture, won't that creat competion for US, Europe and Japan? Sure they will use more steel, oil and all other commodities. But unlike before, the products they made will not ship to foreign countries any more. The whole article was taking about stimulate the internal consumptions. It will not help US and its recession. It will make it much worse.The chinese article from .gov.cn

After I read it, it is not ``We have long-awaited this stimulus plan". It basically is a regular planned activity for chinese govt. They want to spend money to improve j6ps living standard, build more infrastructure, the post disaster rebuilding. It has nothing to do with stimulus. Plus the number is just a ball park number used by the govt. I can't believe Bloomberg put out such a lie. Totally effing bullshit.Plus if the government is going to put a stimulus plan like that it will be all over every website. So far I found none. The only thing I found remotely close is this one.A chinese article talked about 800b fund to stabilize the market


It basically said that there is a report labeled "internal discussion only" 5pages was passes around as policy suggestions. The report was submitted by Institute of Finance & Banking, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. So not likely to happen.

Thursday, November 6, 2008

A lot of bullish people around.

I can understand Cramer is a bull. I can understand Erin and Maria aer bulls(should I call them cows?).

But I can't believe there are a lot of people(short sellers) so bullish whenever the market is down big. Talking about GUTS. They will one day tell their grandkids that they went long during 2008 crash. For the life of me, I will never ever think about going long between Oct 1929 and 1932. Call me a ussy.

Becareful licking the blood on the blade.

Carter is going long, Fleck is not as bearish, etc etc.
Market will always kill you when you started to think everything is going to be ok. If everybody knows where the market is going. Then nobody will be able to make money.

Obama to save the market?

Maybe, but not before Jan. 20th.

If Obama is as smart as advertised, why should he save the market now? People know the market is going down. If I am the elected president, I want the market to crash before I take it over. First, I won't be blamed for the crash. Seconde, if the market goes up after I take over the WH. I will look great as a president who saved the market.

Will he be dumb enough to say anything to pump the market up before Jan. 2009? Who knows.

By the way, the conservative elected president give up on doing anyting to save the market or economy 100 days before he hand over the power. And Obama might be the first President in history become the acting president before Jan.

It is not the banks or housing market

That is dragging this market down.

It is job market, and the pocket of consumers.

You can save banks, but nobody have money to put in banks. You can save GM, Ford, Chrysler, and give them money to build small and more efficient cars.

But nobody will have money to buy it! The house price will go down more. It might go down as low as 2*income for a short period of time.
How many people dumb enough to buy houses and cars when they afraid of losing their jobs or business? None.

Monday, October 6, 2008

Dow will go to 5000

You can bet on it. Just like I am doing.