Monday, November 24, 2008

Shopping malls are running on empty

I have been telling my friends that many many Mom and Pa shops will close right after Christmas.

Why, cause they don't have enough cash or enough business to last one day longer after the Xmas. They can't even get a loan to keep on going.

What worse is that many bankrupted retailers will liquidate their inventories. Where will the shoppers go? They will shop whereever gives more discount. Why shop at 15% discount shop while circuit city is having 50% off. or Mervyns or Linens 'n Things.

I bought some suff in Linens 'n Things at deep discount. I will get much worst in spring. You can count on it.,0,6965079.story

Ko's company manages dozens of properties in Los Angeles and Orange counties. In recent months, they've experienced a rise in delinquent renters. One plaza in Rowland Heights has been hampered by a closure, an upcoming eviction and a business for sale."It was at 100% occupancy just half a year ago," Ko said.A bad situation threatens to get worse after the holidays.Christmas is always a key driver of merchants' financial success, but this year it could mean life and death for many stores, analysts say.Struggling businesses typically hang on through the holiday and then evaluate their financial position, said Malachy Kavanagh, a spokesman for the International Council of Shopping Centers, an industry trade group.

Friday, November 21, 2008

CNBC: We are in the bottoming process

Of course we are. I am sure we will find a bottom somehow, someway.
If you want to put your money in this process, that is fine. But better put it in the right side of the trade.

We will bottom until we saw the worst of this economy. We will find the bottome until the highest unemployment number reached.

But there is always another way to bottom before everything gets even worse. That is something called hyper inflation.

Denis Gartman on CNBC said it is so much easier to deal with inflation, plus everybody felt much richer. Yes Denis, I am sure you will be gazillionair if we gets it.

Thursday, November 13, 2008

We need to pay big buck to keep the talents who work in Wall St.

Oh Really?

I wonder how much talent do you need to bankrupt the investment banks.

I wonder how much talent do you need to lose billions and billions of dollars. It got to be hard to lose that much.

When you lose 100 bucks, you are nobody.
When you lose 100 Billions, you are somebody.

Wednesday, November 12, 2008

Bait & Switch

Rick Santali raised that sign on TV.

So I will be surprised if people will be surprised that Hank will not go and get the rest 450 billions of that 700 billions bailout money from congress. I think you can kiss good bye to that money now.

When will the market realize that? Well we will know when sp500 tank 50 points in one day.

Sunday, November 9, 2008

BS from bloomberg

Here is the bloomberg news I found from TF.

Nov. 9 (Bloomberg) -- China announced a 4 trillion yuan ($586 billion) stimulus plan to spur expansion in the world's fourth-largest economy, helping sustain global growth as the U.S., Europe and Japan teeter on the brink of recession.

Totally bullshit. Even it is ture, won't that creat competion for US, Europe and Japan? Sure they will use more steel, oil and all other commodities. But unlike before, the products they made will not ship to foreign countries any more. The whole article was taking about stimulate the internal consumptions. It will not help US and its recession. It will make it much worse.The chinese article from
After I read it, it is not ``We have long-awaited this stimulus plan". It basically is a regular planned activity for chinese govt. They want to spend money to improve j6ps living standard, build more infrastructure, the post disaster rebuilding. It has nothing to do with stimulus. Plus the number is just a ball park number used by the govt. I can't believe Bloomberg put out such a lie. Totally effing bullshit.Plus if the government is going to put a stimulus plan like that it will be all over every website. So far I found none. The only thing I found remotely close is this one.A chinese article talked about 800b fund to stabilize the market

It basically said that there is a report labeled "internal discussion only" 5pages was passes around as policy suggestions. The report was submitted by Institute of Finance & Banking, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. So not likely to happen.

Thursday, November 6, 2008

A lot of bullish people around.

I can understand Cramer is a bull. I can understand Erin and Maria aer bulls(should I call them cows?).

But I can't believe there are a lot of people(short sellers) so bullish whenever the market is down big. Talking about GUTS. They will one day tell their grandkids that they went long during 2008 crash. For the life of me, I will never ever think about going long between Oct 1929 and 1932. Call me a ussy.

Becareful licking the blood on the blade.

Carter is going long, Fleck is not as bearish, etc etc.
Market will always kill you when you started to think everything is going to be ok. If everybody knows where the market is going. Then nobody will be able to make money.

Obama to save the market?

Maybe, but not before Jan. 20th.

If Obama is as smart as advertised, why should he save the market now? People know the market is going down. If I am the elected president, I want the market to crash before I take it over. First, I won't be blamed for the crash. Seconde, if the market goes up after I take over the WH. I will look great as a president who saved the market.

Will he be dumb enough to say anything to pump the market up before Jan. 2009? Who knows.

By the way, the conservative elected president give up on doing anyting to save the market or economy 100 days before he hand over the power. And Obama might be the first President in history become the acting president before Jan.

It is not the banks or housing market

That is dragging this market down.

It is job market, and the pocket of consumers.

You can save banks, but nobody have money to put in banks. You can save GM, Ford, Chrysler, and give them money to build small and more efficient cars.

But nobody will have money to buy it! The house price will go down more. It might go down as low as 2*income for a short period of time.
How many people dumb enough to buy houses and cars when they afraid of losing their jobs or business? None.