Unemployeement Pictures

What will the new number going to show us this summer. Will it take a huge jump? It should, unless the government want to lie about unemployment numbers. Which will not surprise me at all at this point.

They might not count those who will graduate this summer. If our government take the right and correct way to calculate the real unemployment numbers. It should have a big spike. 80% to 95% of the student out of school and joining the labor force this summer will find nothing is out there for them to take. At least 50% of Retirees should find them can not afford it after the tankage in the stock market.

Many small business owner find their income are as little as 10% of what they made last year. And small business still is a big part of the economy. The line of credit disappeared or disappearing. It means no money to hire or even keep the people they have. I already found the price of the food are going higher and higher. The shops are raising price to compensate the revenue loss. How long can this last? I don't know. But it will be good at the end.

spx 888

I call this "mliu top"

Insanity and stupidity reached absolutely high. Are people in US still thinking?
We rallied on the news that GDP shrinked the most in 50 years. Now we rallying 30 minute before Obama announce Chrysler go into chapter 11. We rallied weeks after weeks of 600k people losing jobs. And we focused on corps beat the earnings by cost cutting even though the revenue were way down.

It is not cost cutting, it is lay offs. Too much lies, too much idiocrcy. It is not going to end well.

The Chrysler Bankruptcy will be way worse than LEH bankruptcy. Why, cause this one is not just the number in the banks going down. This will bring immediate change in at least 1 million people's everyday life. GM and Chrysler shared many suppliers. This bk might bring many to their knees. Pray to God that I am wrong.

Obama can shed out trillions to save the banks with no strings attached. Even the banksters are paying them big bonus and salarys. But they simply don't want to do much for auto industry. He served well to those financed him.

Lies can never be Priced in

expected 660,000 range 525,000 to 750,000
Unemployment rate - 8.5% Expected 8.5%

January revision was significant 741,000

How can government data missed by 100k in job loss in a month?? Apparently, this government will not cease to play games on these numbers. China is doing and was doing this for many many years. They are getting better when they are lying less. There is no doubt in my mind, when government lying about the numbers can't be good for whatever reason.

The reason for lying is to cover, when people can't find the truth, it will only make matters worse.

Stock market can price in the numbers by expection, but it can never priced in the lies.

A lesson for Humanity

Never trust a currency from another country.

China, Japan and Arabs will learn this lesson a hard way.

Lies, and more Lies. It is all good when it keep going higher

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/US-Feb-new-home-sales/story.aspx?guid=%7B2F39408B%2D245A%2D4FBE%2D9CC2%2DEEACEA8B9116%7D


U.S. Feb new home sales up 4.7% to 337,000 pace
By Greg Robb
Last update: 10:00 a.m. EDT March 25, 2009
Comments: 9
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - U.S. new home sales rose 4.7% in February, the first increase since last July, the Commerce Department estimated Wednesday. The increase in new-home sales to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 337,000 was well above the 323,000 pace expected by economists surveyed by MarketWatch. New-home sales in January were revised to a 322,000 level compared with the previous estimate of 309,000. New-home sales are still down 41.1% compared with a year ago. The months' supply of homes on the market fell slightly to 12.2 months in February from 12.9 months in January. This is still well above the 9.7 month supply in February 2008. Median sales prices have fallen 18.1% in the past year to $200,900.


Here is the chart from:

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/03/new-home-sales-just-above-record-low.html

Click on this to see larger version.
This told the true story.

Don't fight the Fed!

Oh boy we hear this again.

How are those peole who keep saying this doing in the past couple of years?

Here is how they did!

Put to Call ratio

The ratio since September:





Intraday ratio:




It has been like this for the past few days.


My take on this is that Pigs is going to get slaughtered AGAIN.


Why do I think so?


1. People are rushing to follow the trend. So market going down, they buy puts. Market gooing up they buy calls. And most of the time they are wrong.


2. PC ratio has consistenly showed that when the ratio reached certain level, it always reverse its direction. When that happens, the market will reverse its direction as well.



Just look at this:






One year chart. I have a lot of thoughts on this, I need more times to finish it. But by just look at this chart. I am pretty convinced that the next opex day, Pigs will get slaughtered.



I can't stop working on this. Here is my thought for the 3 month chart.



Disclaimer: I am a newbie playing the chart. So don't consider this is in any shape or form telling people what is going to happen.

It has 0% investment value. But it intended to has 100% entertainment value.

















Got to go, will come back on this later.